Monday, 3 September 2012

CBN’s curious currency review - BY PUNCH EDITORIAL BOARD


FEDERAL lawmakers were right on target when they rose on Monday against the latest hare-brained attempt to restructure the national currency. Having got away several times in his three years on the job with controversially tinkering with policies, Lamido Sanusi, the Central Bank of Nigeria Governor, now plans to introduce a new N5,000 note, redesign the existing notes and coin some lower denominations. As usual, the CBN claimed that since President Goodluck Jonathan had bought the idea, the new notes and coins would be in circulation in 2013. For now, this adventure is speculated to cost at least N40 billion. For the sake of our fragile economy, the CBN should be stopped.

Unfolding the currency review, Sanusi said last week that the apex bank would introduce a single N5,000 note, replace the existing N5, N10 and N20 notes with coins and redesign the existing N50, N100, N200, N500 and N1,000. The N5,000 note will be used to honour the contributions of Margaret Ekpo, Funmilayo Ransome-Kuti and Gambo Sawaba to the struggle for Nigeria’s independence. The CBN governor also attributed the proposed introduction of the high denomination note to “inflationary pressures”. The redesign, according to the CBN, is in line with international best practice whereby countries review their currency structure every five to eight years.

Between 2006 and 2007, the last time the CBN redesigned N5, N10, N20 and N50 notes, it claimed the exercise was to make the notes more secure and last longer; make currency notes smaller in size and fit easily into wallets; reduce the cost of replacing dirty notes and ensure the notes were not exposed to heat. Now, the CBN says it will liaise with relevant government ministries, departments and agencies, deposit money banks, road transport workers, market operators, small businesses, supermarkets and vendors, to create avenues for the usage of coins. In addition, the apex bank has promised to ensure that “coin collection is convenient and the introduction of the new currency series will be a gradual process as the banknotes will circulate simultaneously with the old series until they are fully withdrawn from circulation.”

Though they appear compelling, such arguments gloss over a number of critical issues in the national economy. Countries redesign national currencies for many reasons, including the need to stay ahead of counterfeiting threats and keep counterfeiting levels low. The United States Federal Reserve, for example, continuously monitors the counterfeiting threats for each denomination of the U.S. currency and makes redesign decisions based on these threats. An inter-agency committee, including the Advanced Counterfeit Deterrence Steering Committee, makes recommendations on design changes to the Secretary of the Treasury, who has final authority for US currency designs. Commemorative coins and, occasionally, banknotes are also issued to mark special occasions or to honour individuals.

In the present circumstances, Sanusi’s priorities are seriously skewed. The existing notes are not under the threat of counterfeiters, the main reason notes are redesigned in open societies. How far has he positioned the apex bank to check money laundering activities that are so central to the nation’s anti-graft war and war on terrorism? Neither Jonathan nor Sanusi thought of the ease with which money launderers would be moving tons of cash across borders in easy-to-conceal N5, 000 notes despite the crises of terrorism and corruption facing the nation.

No serious country messes with its national currency for the fancy of it. Nigeria is arguably the only democracy where a central bank governor would announce such a major policy without any input, discussion or debate by all other stakeholders. The Senate Committee on Banking, Insurance and Other Financial Institutions rightly pointed out that such a far-reaching policy “requires parliamentary approval”. But Sanusi is, as usual, pushing the envelope, testing the limits of the CBN’s vaunted autonomy.

The policy itself is patently awful, portending more problems for the economy and hardly any benefit. Why spend N40 billion on what is described as “a needless exercise?” The CBN’s assertion that the new currency notes may be printed locally is disingenuous; the Nigerian Security Printing and Minting Corporation simply lacks the capacity to handle such a volume of work, meaning more contracts for overseas printing/minting companies. But the last time we did it, there were allegations that Securency International Pty Limited paid money in bribes through its marketing agents to government officials to secure the contracts.

The hope that the policy “will complement the cashless policy” is even more bizarre. Most economists say the opposite. The N5, 000 bill, they say, defeats the cashless policy by making it easier to carry large sums of money, not less. You can stuff N1 million in a bunch of 200 pieces! It would even make more sense to scrap our N1, 000 note to back up the wobbly cashless initiative that is failing in the face of our weak infrastructure. Countries typically issue higher denominations in response to hyper inflation, not on a whim.

Contrary to the CBN’s false optimism, the higher denomination and the coining will fuel inflation. They always do. The last attempt to force coin usage in 2006 failed miserably. The coining of N5, N10 and N20 will effectively make N50 the lowest currency in circulation. No one, not even banks, despite threats by the CBN, accepts coins. Coins must satisfy a key ingredient of money: they must have general acceptance. Nigerians simply don’t accept them because they have no use for them. When CBN officials try to intimidate us by saying no economy operates without coins, they fail to add that elsewhere, vending machines dispense all manner of consumer products, thereby making their coins valuable. Biodun Adedipe, an economist, reminds us that the cultural and psychological attitudes of Nigerians towards coins spell doom for the policy. Traders will simply raise prices of commodities that should be paid for in coins.

When Sanusi compared Nigeria to the city state, Singapore, Germany and Japan, as countries with high denominations, he failed to say that these are highly industrialised export-oriented economies with gross domestic product of $239.7 billion, $3.57 trillion and $5.87 trillion respectively compared to Nigeria’s $235.9 billion. Meanwhile, the highest denomination in circulation in the US, the world’s largest economy with GDP of $15.09 trillion, is $100, though its $500, $1,000 and other higher ones are still legal tender which are no longer issued. Britain, with GDP of $2.43 trillion, retains its 50 pound sterling note as its highest, and South Africa, with GDP of $408.24 billion does not go beyond 200 rand note.

The overall assessment of our economy is downbeat, depicting a jobless growth, as the United Nations Development Programme rightly declared recently. The National Assembly should ask Sanusi how his latest posturing helps to achieve the central bank’s primary mandate of managing inflation which is now over 12 per cent, and inflation rates which hover between 19 and 23 per cent and stifles growth. How does this grand distraction revive the banking system, which is still beset with institutional weaknesses, low credit to productive sectors and mass staff layoffs?

Jonathan should halt this foolhardy venture exactly the way the late President Umaru Yar’Adua stopped the former CBN governor, Chukwuma Soludo, from implementing his ill-thought-out naira redenomination. And if he fails, our lawmakers should confront this tragedy of misplaced policies that has seen changes in our currency structure five times in the last 13 years with the highest denomination moving from N50 to N100 to N200 to N500 and N1,000, each time, fuelling inflation. These are the same factors that have induced the rejection of coins as legal tender and rendered the cashless policy ineffective.

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